Chances of a Full Trump Family Prediction Market Launch This Year Have Dropped Sharply

The likelihood that the Trump family will roll out a fully functional prediction market product in 2026 has fallen dramatically.

Last year, Trump Media and Technology Group first unveiled Truth Predict, a joint initiative with cryptocurrency firm Crypto.com. The original announcement billed the tool as a groundbreaking new product that would let Truth Social users place trades on outcomes ranging from sports matches and inflation rates to election results and more, via a built-in prediction market service embedded directly into the platform.

“For too long, global elites have tightly controlled these markets—with Truth Predict, we’re democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable foresight,” then-CEO Devin Nunes said in an October 2025 press release. At the time, the company laid out clear user logistics: Truth Social members would be able to convert the platform’s native “Truth Gem” token into Cronos cryptocurrency, then use those assets to place trades on Truth Predict.

Today, however, Trump Media is positioning the project very differently. In its most recent public regulatory filing, the company confirmed the prediction market “remains in development,” but noted its initial offering will be limited to a “marketing and promotion collaboration” with OG.com, the U.S.-based prediction platform Crypto.com launched in February 2026.

Exactly what this collaboration entails remains unclear: neither Trump Media nor Crypto.com responded to requests for detail on the agreement’s terms. “We’re encouraged by the progress we’ve made developing Truth Predict in partnership with CDNA and look forward to bringing this exciting feature to Truth Social’s users,” Trump Media spokesperson Shannon Devine told WIRED via email. (For context, CDNA is Crypto.com’s U.S.-regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse affiliate, officially named Crypto.com | Derivatives North America—a name that does exactly not roll off the tongue.)

Prediction markets are one of the fastest-growing and most heavily contested fintech sectors in the U.S. today. Donald Trump Jr. already has deep ties to leading players in the space: he works as a paid advisor to Kalshi and holds an investment stake in Polymarket through his venture capital firm. President Donald Trump has rarely spoken publicly about prediction markets, though this past April he told reporters he did not “like it conceptually” and that he was “not happy with any of that stuff.”

Even so, the Trump administration has taken an overwhelmingly industry-friendly stance through its top federal financial regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). During the Biden administration, the CFTC banned Polymarket and even raided CEO Shayne Coplan’s home; the Trump-era CFTC dropped the investigation entirely after taking office. The current CFTC also claims exclusive jurisdiction over the entire prediction market industry, has opposed state attempts to regulate the space, and has filed its own lawsuits against what CFTC Chair Michael Selig calls “overzealous state regulators.”

Selig is currently locked in a tense public battle with state regulators over how existing law should apply to prediction market products. States including Nevada, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts have already brought legal action against Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com, arguing the firms must comply with state-level gambling regulations.

One of OG.com’s most notable planned features was its initial proposal to offer margin trading, which lets traders borrow capital to place trades instead of covering the full cost upfront. While margin trading is standard practice in traditional financial derivatives, it is relatively new to prediction markets and carries inherently higher risk, as it allows users to bet with money they do not own. It remains unclear if OG.com will ever launch this offering: when WIRED asked the company if margin trading is currently live, the OG team replied via email that “margin trading is not an offered product.”

The big takeaway is that in the near future, Truth Social users may soon be able to toggle between reading Trump’s signature all-caps posts and borrowing large sums to place a World Cup parlay bet. But depending on how the marketing collaboration is structured, users may never actually place trades directly within the Truth Social platform.

As Trump Media continues developing the full Truth Predict product, other right-wing media outlets are already moving into the prediction market space. In March, Newsmax applied for National Futures Association membership to launch its own offering, branded Newsmax Markets. The industry’s two leading platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have already struck partnership deals with a range of major news organizations including CNN, CNBC, and Fox.

At first glance, Trump Media’s partnership with Crypto.com may seem arbitrary. But the two firms have deep existing ties and already operate another joint crypto treasury venture. Crypto.com is also a major donor to Trump-aligned political committees. Earlier this spring, the crypto company announced plans to celebrate two milestones—its own 10th anniversary and the 250th anniversary of the United States—by co-hosting a mixed martial arts event on the White House lawn, scheduled for June 2026.