Chances of a Full Trump-Branded Prediction Market Launch This Year Have Plummeted

The likelihood that the Trump family will roll out a fully functional prediction market product in 2026 has dropped sharply, following new disclosures from Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG).

Back in October 2025, TMTG announced Truth Predict, a collaborative venture built in partnership with global cryptocurrency firm Crypto.com. The original launch announcement billed Truth Predict as an innovative new embedded service that would let Truth Social users place trades on everything from sports outcomes and inflation rates to election results and beyond.

“For too long, global elites have tightly controlled these markets—with Truth Predict, we’re democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable foresight,” then-TMTG CEO Devin Nunes said in the 2025 press release.

At the time of the announcement, the company laid out a clear roadmap for users: Truth Social account holders would be able to convert the platform’s native “Truth Gem” token into Cronos cryptocurrency, then use those assets to place trades directly through the Truth Predict interface.

Today, TMTG is framing the project very differently. In its most recent public regulatory filing, the company confirmed the prediction market “remains in development,” but added that its initial offering will be limited to a “marketing and promotion collaboration” with OG.com, the U.S.-based prediction market platform Crypto.com launched in February 2026.

Exactly what a “marketing and promotion collaboration” entails remains a mystery: neither TMTG nor Crypto.com responded to requests for clarification on the terms of the agreement. “We’re encouraged by the progress we’ve made developing Truth Predict in partnership with CDNA and look forward to bringing this exciting feature to Truth Social’s users,” TMTG spokesperson Shannon Devine told WIRED via email. (CDNA is shorthand for Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, Crypto.com’s U.S.-regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse.)

Prediction markets are a fast-growing, deeply controversial segment of fintech, and the Trump family already has extensive ties to the industry. Donald Trump Jr. works as a paid advisor to leading platform Kalshi, and holds an investment stake in top competitor Polymarket through his venture capital firm. Former President Donald Trump has made few public comments on the sector, though he told reporters this April that he did not “like it conceptually” and was “not happy with any of that stuff.”

Even so, the current Trump administration has taken a broadly pro-industry stance through its top federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). During the Biden administration, the CFTC banned Polymarket and even raided CEO Shayne Coplan’s home; the Trump-era CFTC has since dropped the full investigation. The current CFTC also claims exclusive federal jurisdiction over the entire prediction market industry, and has opposed state-level regulatory efforts, filing lawsuits against what CFTC chair Michael Selig calls “overzealous state regulators.”

Selig is currently locked in a bitter public battle with state officials over how existing law applies to prediction market products. States including Nevada, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts have already taken legal action against Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com, arguing the platforms must comply with state gambling regulations.

One of OG.com’s most notable early planned features was margin trading, which allows users to borrow funds to place trades instead of covering the full value of their positions upfront. While margin trading is standard practice in traditional financial derivatives, it is a new offering for prediction markets, and carries elevated inherent risk because it allows traders to leverage capital they do not own. It remains unclear if OG.com will ever roll out the feature: when WIRED asked if margin trading is currently live, a response from “the OG team” simply stated “margin trading is not an offered product.”

The bottom line for Truth Social users: in the near future, you may be able to toggle between reading Donald Trump’s all-caps posts and placing large leveraged bets on events like the World Cup, but you may never actually execute those trades directly within the Truth Social app, depending on how the marketing collaboration is structured.

As TMTG continues to develop Truth Predict, other right-wing media organizations are already moving into the prediction market space. In March, Newsmax applied for membership to the National Futures Association for a new venture branded Newsmax Markets. The industry’s two largest players, Kalshi and Polymarket, have already struck partnership deals with a range of news outlets, including CNN, CNBC, and Fox.

At first glance, TMTG’s partnership with Crypto.com may seem random, but the two firms share deep ties and existing business ventures. They already operate a joint cryptocurrency treasury, and Crypto.com is a major donor to Trump-aligned political committees. Earlier this spring, the crypto firm announced plans to mark both its 10th anniversary and the 250th anniversary of the United States by co-hosting a mixed martial arts event on the White House lawn, scheduled for June 2026.